Barefoot Investor: China Central Bank Adviser Forecasts Growth Slowdown to 7.4%

China’s economic growth slowed to 7.6 percent in the three months ended June, the sixth straight deceleration, as Europe’s fiscal crisis sapped exports and a crackdown on property speculation curbed domestic demand.

Growth Target

A survey by the center of 22 domestic and foreign banks and institutions had a median forecast for third-quarter expansion of 7.8 percent.

China’s overseas sales in the first half of the year rose 9.2 percent, while imports gained 6.7 percent, putting the government at risk of missing its goal of 10 percent expansion in trade this year.
(Source: Bloomberg)

‘Effective Stimulus’

Export growth may slow in coming months, surveys of manufacturing purchasing managers indicate. A June survey released July 2 by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed new export orders fell at their steepest pace in more than three years while a separate index released by the government a day earlier showed overseas demand contracted for the first time since January.

Willingness to Invest

Signs of weakening domestic demand include falling factory- gate prices and softening inflation. The producer price index dropped 2.1 percent in June from a year earlier, the fourth straight decline, while consumer prices rose 2.2 percent, the smallest increase since January 2010.

The combination has lowered investment returns for Chinese industrial companies, Song said. “This is not only a problem for monetary policy, but also the willingness of companies to invest.”

Reduce Taxes

First-half profit declines at hundreds of Chinese companies may increase pressure on the government to reduce corporate taxes as part of efforts to stem the economy’s slowdown. Net income fell from a year earlier for more than half of 760 listed companies to report results, worse than in the first six months of 2009, Societe Generale SA said in a July 19 note.

Moderating inflation has given the central bank more room to ease monetary policy. It announced the second reduction in interest rates in a month on July 5 and has lowered the proportion of deposits banks must set aside as reserves three times since it started cuts in November to boost lending.


Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...